Housing Starts, Purchase Originations 2016, Consumer Spending

October 20, 2015

Tuesday – October 20

Construction on new homes rose in September from August after declines in the two previous months. The Commerce Department reported that September Housing Starts rose 6.5% from August to an annual rate of 1.210 million units, above the 1.150 million expected. The report went on to reveal that single-family starts rose modestly, while there was a 17% increase in multi-family units. However, Building Permits, a sign of future construction, fell 5%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Tuesday that it forecasts that purchase originations should increase by 10% in 2016 from 2015. However, the MBA sees refinance originations decreasing by one-third in the same time period. The MBA is forecasting purchase originations of $978 billion and refinance originations of $331 billion for a total of $1.31 trillion. “We are projecting that home purchase originations will increase in 2016 as the U.S. housing market continues on its path towards more typical levels of turnover based on steadily rising demand and improvements in the supply of homes for sale and under construction,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.

The National Retail Federation released its Holiday Consumer Spending Survey on Tuesday and expects the average spending per consumer this year will be $805.65, up slightly from 2014’s $802.45. That figure is the highest in the surveys 14-year history and includes food, gifts, decorations and other items. In addition, online purchases will make up 46% of consumer buying, above 2014’s 44.4%. Online retailer Amazon expects to hire 100,000 U.S. workers to handle holiday orders.

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Weekly Market Activity Report 6/23/14

June 23, 2014

Via one of our real estate partners, Kyle McLean of Real Estate Masters, the Weekly Market Activity Report from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors. Thank you, Kyle for sharing with us.

Mpls Area Assoc Realtors

Click here to visit the PDF report

“Some economists do not believe that housing has established enough upward momentum to warrant a declaration of recovery, yet many market analysts are observing the rule of The Tortoise and the Hare. Fast, energetic upward spikes in sales may be exciting, but slow and steady wins the race. This phase of stabilization will likely show itself in year-over-year comparisons that cause yawns, but this kind of race is ultimately good for the market as a whole.”

 

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First woman to be the Chairperson…

February 03, 2014

The top spot at the Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S. switches to former Vice Chair Janet Yellen from outgoing Chief Ben Bernanke today. Ms. Yellen is the first woman to be the Chairperson in its 100-year history and will guide the nation through the post recession era of the U.S. economy.
In economic news, the January ISM Manufacturing Index was released this morning and came in lower that expectations at 51.3 versus the 56.0 expected to the slowest pace in 10-months. Within the report it showed that the new orders component fell 13.2 points to 51.2, also the lowest since May. The hiring gauge fell by 3.5 points to 52.3. The decline was due in part to unusually poor weather in January.
The big economic report due for release this week is the January Jobs report, which consists of Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. Payrolls are expected to rise by 175,000, after the weak reading in December of only 74,000 jobs created. The Unemployment Rate is expected is expected to drop to 6.5% from 6.7%. The report will be released Friday at 8:30am ET.

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Homeowners who refinanced their mortgages in the first quarter of 2013 will save…

June 07, 2013

The highly anticipated jobs report was released showing that employers added 175,000 new jobs in May, above the 159,000 expected signaling that the labor markets are improving, but not at a pace where the Federal Reserve will pull back on its current stimulus program. The Unemployment Rate rose to 7.6% from 7.5% and it was reported that 420,000 people entered the work force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places and retail trade.

The Great Recession took a toll on the pockets of Americans across the nation as the middle class saw their personal wealth fall by almost 50% to nearly a 40-year low. In the recent data, households have gained back 62% of what disappeared according to the figures compiled through the first quarter of this year.

Freddie Mac reported yesterday that homeowners who refinanced their mortgages in the first quarter of 2013 will save nearly $7 billion in interest payments in the next 12 months. The categories are broken down as 28% shortened their loan terms, 68% of borrowers kept the same term as the loan that they paid off, 3% chose to lengthen their term loan while more than 95% of refinancing borrowers chose a fixed-rate loan.

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Economic data was plentiful this morning

May 16, 2013

Economic data was plentiful this morning, but tilted towards the weaker side as the reports streamed in, while inflation at the consumer level declined. The weaker than expected data gave a boost to the Bond markets as investors shifted over to more safer assets.

The Commerce Department gave a mixed reading on the housing market as the sector continues to recover. Building permits, a sign of future construction, surged by 14.3% in April, but housing starts declined by 16.5%. It was a minor setback on the road to recovery and one report doesn’t constitute a trend. The breakdown showed that single-family starts fell 2.1% while multi-family dwellings plunged by 37% from March to April. From April of 2012 to April 2013, housing starts were up 13%…the long-term upward trend continues, but there will be bumps in the road along the way.

The labor markets also received a bit of bad news this morning as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 32,000 in the latest week to 360,000, the highest level since late March. A spokesman from the Labor Department said there was no unusual activity for the survey and that the sequester had no effect on the numbers.

The Last economic data point today was a report from the Philadelphia Fed showing that manufacturing in the region weakened in May and all of the components were also negative. The Philly Fed Index decreased from 1.3 in April to -5.2 this month. The employment component fell 2 points to -8.7, its second consecutive negative reading. The weak report comes after yesterday’s worse than expected manufacturing data from New York.

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